29 Apr 09 Swine Flu, or There Is No Need To Panic
People are all up in arms about swine flu. There is certainly cause for concern: this new swine flu can kill and is transmittable pretty easily. But my roommate today in Minneapolis, MN came up to me and asked if I was concerned the market would crash, and if he should change his investments to reflect this. Step 1: Don’t Panic.
My senior seminar and research was on influenza, specifically the H5N1 avian flu influenza and the World Health Organization’s policies and coordination efforts to combat the spread and potential pandemic of avian flu. My conclusion–that the policies of the WHO will have a limited effect on the prevention and containment of an influenza pandemic–are still accurate. But I don’t think that we are on the verge of a pandemic yet.
Influenza itself is a very tricky, adaptive virus. It’s makeup essentially ensures that eventually a strain capable of being a pandemic will occur–it continues to reshape itself, even across species. It is classified typically by the species it is found in, by its potency (lethality), some key genetic and molecular markers, and finally the year of its discovery. New influenza virus strains are actually rather common, since they pass around individuals of a species so easily, and even between host species as well.
In the case of H1N1 swine influenza, we’ve so far had a total of 8 deaths. This doesn’t speak to an incredibly high mortality rate; however, the people who have been affected have primarily been in the Western Hemisphere, and not strictly in the Global South. The morbidity of the disease is strikingly high: 91 people so far in the United States, with perhaps 1,000 or more in Mexico. I can understand why the CDC and WHO are being aggressive in their pursuit and containment of the disease, but it strikes me as a bit overkill: why?
To put things in perspective, an estimated 36,000 people die and some 200,000 people hospitalized every year from influenza-related illnesses. To me, a pandemic is when you see the bodies in the streets before you hear it on the news; a range of 20-100 million people were killed in the 1918 influenza pandemic.
Tags: 1918 influenza pandemic, flu pandemic, pandemic, swine flu, swine influenza
23 Jan 09 Within two days…
Obama has done more to satisfy me as a voter than Bush has in the last 8 years. How gratifying–I hope it’s a sign of things to come, even though I do know that a new president’s first 100 days have the most impact on policy. I still suspect a massive quagmire to his changes down the line, either in Social Security, the wars abroad, or perhaps with the economy.
My roommate Mike and I were having a discussion today, and how my wish list for Obama also extended to cutting defense by, oh, 80% or something. He was shocked–”What do you mean, not have an army?!” It then kinda dawned on me that a lot of people my age, and many older, have been brought up knowing that America’s army was omnipresent, always recruiting, always doing the dirty work. But I’ve been a long-standing proponent of dismantling the army and navy during times of peace and instead focusing our efforts and funds elsewhere. Sure, defense is an excellent industry to get into and cutting off the army would mean very significant economic changes (remember when the Pentagon tried to shut down the Rapid City, SD Ellsworth AFB?) to America and abroad, but there’s just no use to having an Army in a time of open, declared peace.
They seem to have a habit of finding things to do to occupy their time…
